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本研究基于政策反馈理论,使用中国老年社会追踪调查数据,运用倾向值得分匹配与渐进双重差分模型,考察长期护理保险对老年人养老责任偏好的政策影响。研究发现,长护险增强了老年人的社会化养老责任倾向,其影响通过资源、解释与学习三种政策反馈机制实现,在家庭照护负担较重、所在地区政策宣导力度较强及享受过待遇保障的群体中更突出。相关发现揭示了政策在非政治观念领域的溢出效应,并基于中国长护险“普惠筹资瞄准给付”的混合型制度与老年群体非政治活跃性的独特情境,深化了对政策反馈机制多样性及情境依赖性的理论认知,为政策反馈理论在非西方福利体制下的发展提供了新的实证支持。在未来长护险试点推进过程中,政府需积极回应老年人的社会化养老期待,同时重视并发挥家庭照护的基础性作用。
Abstract：Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China's social security system has developed rapidly.With the continuous aging of the population,the scale of the elderly population with functional impairments is constantly expanding,which brings heavy care pressure to families and generates a huge social care demand.Against this backdrop,Long-Term Care Insurance(LTCI) has become a key policy tool for addressing the risk of elderly disability and alleviating the burden of family care,and has been piloted and promoted nationwide.However,existing research mainly focuses on its economic and care effects,and few studies explore from the perspective of institutional culture how LTCI shapes the older adults' eldercare responsibility preferences.Policy feedback theory emphasizes the proposition that "policies shape politics," holding that public policies can reshape political systems and environments,thereby influencing the political process.As a major welfare policy innovation in recent years,China's LTCI may have a policy feedback effect on the policy preferences of the older adults.From the perspective of policy feedback,this study attempts to answer two core questions:(1) How does LCTI affect the older adults' eldercare responsibility preferences?(2) Through what mechanisms does LCTI shape these preferences?To answer these questions,this study analyzed data from four phases of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey(CLASS).This study estimated the causal impact of LCTI on the eldercare responsibility preferences of the older adults aged 60 and above by adopting a progressive Staggered Difference-in-Differences design and combining the Propensity Score Matching method.This empirical strategy helps alleviate endogeneity problems such as selection bias and omitted variables,thereby ensuring more reliable results.Research has found that LCTI has strengthened the older adults' preference for socialized eldercare responsib ilities,increasing support for government or societal rather than individual or familial provision of eldercare.A series of robustness checks indicated that this result was robust.Further analysis shows that LTCI mainly influences eldercare responsibility preferences through three mechanisms:resource effect(alleviating the burden of care),interpretation effect(transmitting policy signals),and learning effect(accumulating policy experience).Older adults with heavier family care burdens,greater policy promotion efforts in their regions,and those who have personally benefited from LCTI coverage are more likely to show a stronger preference for socialized eldercare responsibilities.This study provides two key theoretical contributions to policy feedback theory.Firstly,it reveals the spillover effect of LCTI in non-political fields,which is specifically reflected in reshaping the older adults' perception of their responsibility for old-age carethis dimension is rooted in ethical judgment and cultural norms rather than explicit political attitudes.This expands the scope of the theory from traditional political outcomes to the cognitive and normative domains,clarifying how public policies reconstruct citizens' understanding of the social contract.Secondly,based on the Chinese context,it highlights the institutional and cultural dependence of the policy feedback mechanism.The hybrid system design of LCTI and the responsiveness of the non-politically active older adults indicate that the policy feedback mechanism is shaped by a specific welfare framework and social background,thereby promoting the applicability of this theory under different political systems.
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(1)相关数据来自国家统计局发布的《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
(2)人民网:《习近平强调推动老龄事业全面协调可持续发展》,2016年5月29日,https://jhsjk. people. cn/article/28387539,2026年7月17日访问。
(1)相关数据来自国家医保局发布的《2025年医疗保障事业发展统计快报》。
(1)本文估计长护险的意向处理效应主要因为:区别于长护险在健康、经济维度上的直接影响,长护险对老年人养老责任偏好的文化影响具有更强的政策溢出效应,即这类影响不只限于试点城市那些切实享受待遇保障的失能老人,还会同步影响试点城市中活力老人的养老预期,作用于其养老责任偏好。
(2)鉴于不同来源的家庭照料具有一定替代性,故对于多子女家庭而言,本文主要选取家庭照料频率最高的子女来反映受访者的非正式照护获取情况。
(3)省级官方报纸报道数据来自中国知网中国重要报纸全文数据库、慧科新闻搜索研究数据库及《大众日报》(山东省)、《安徽日报》(安徽省)官方公众号,名单参见https://www. toutiao. com/article/7471167022132150825/,检索主题及关键词包括“长期护理保险”“长护险”“护理保险”“长期照护”“失能照护”;省级网络检索指数数据通过“省级行政单位名称+长护险主题”的PC端精确检索结果获得。
(1)本文实证分析部分使用的均为半径匹配后的数据,历年的三种匹配方法均通过了样本平衡性检验,限于篇幅,正文未展示相关结果。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F842.6;D669.6
引用信息:
[1]马琦峰,宁晶.长期护理保险如何塑造养老责任偏好?——基于政策反馈理论的分析框架[J].公共管理评论().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目“人工智能政策叙事与公众反馈效应:基于地方政府的实证研究”(项目批准号:72304066); 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“治理视域下中国政府部门与社会组织合作关系研究”(项目批准号:22JJD630002); 中国人民大学2026年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划的资助
2026-07-20
2026-07-20
2026-07-20