于松浩,卫志民,王懋轩

• 1:北京师范大学政府管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

过去40年间，通过分权及公共行为偏好来解释中国经济高速增长的学术观点逐渐发展成了一个重要的理论分支，但分权理论本身却并未能得到经验证据的一致支持。基于荟萃分析方法，本文对分权改革与经济增长这一领域内符合预定纳入标准的21项经验研究所报告的121个效应值展开系统评价，整合分权改革与县域经济增长之间的主效应，并检验该领域内研究证据异质性程度以及出版偏误。研究结果显示，分权改革与县域经济增长的主效应为0.0522[95%CI:0.0312—0.0732],二者之间存在低程度的正相关性。该研究领域内存在出版偏误，在纠正出版偏误后分权改革对县域经济增长没有显著影响，现有的实证研究夸大了改革对经济增长的促进作用。异质性检验的结果表明，已有经验证据存在高异质性，即不同研究间的真实效应不同，这是导致现有经验证据出现不一致的主要原因。本文的研究更可靠地评估了分权改革的经济效应，对于从经验证据的角度重新审视分权理论具有重要的理论和实践意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 分权改革;省直管县;扩权强县;经济增长;荟萃分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 于松浩,卫志民,王懋轩

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• (1)这一排除标准主要是希望利用学术期刊和硕士、博士学位论文相对严格的外审机制来规避学术不端风险,从而减少荟萃分析纳入文献的偏倚。当然,这样做也可能遗漏某些可信的经验文献,但这本身是为了提高荟萃分析结果可靠性应当承担的风险。
• (2)我们在选取估计方法前进行了Hausman检验,结果表明随机效应模型优于固定效应模型,受限于篇幅,本文不再单独报告上述检验的结果。