李强,叶昱利

• 1:澳门城市大学金融学院
• 2:广东交通职业技术学院运输与经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文研究个人出生顺序对成为管理精英的影响。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，本文发现在多同胞家庭中，男性出生顺序越靠前，成为公共部门基层和高层管理精英的概率越高，这一现象在“二弟”群体中尤为显著，这与二弟作为事实长子的角色有关。进一步分析表明，当二弟有长姐时，同胞数量而非同胞性别结构显著影响其精英化概率。机制分析表明，非认知能力、教育水平、入党和参军是驱动出生顺序效应的主要机制，知青经历影响有限。本文的结论有两方面启示：一是公共政策制定者应该认识到出生顺序对其在做公共决策时的潜在影响；二是公共政策应该致力于帮助家庭更全面地理解子女数量而非性别结构对子女成长的深远影响，以此优化生育促进政策的设计。

关键词(KeyWords)： 管理精英;出生顺序效应;同胞性别结构;长子效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“防止规模性返贫的监测机制与帮扶路径研究”(22&ZD192)的资助

作者(Author): 李强,叶昱利

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