鞠逸飞,董新宇

• 1:复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院
• 2:西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

电视问政是具有独特属性的问政形式。为了探究电视问政中政府长期回应性及其动力,本研究以南宁市的《向人民承诺——电视问政》节目为例,从上层压力、下层压力和短期回应质量三个方面提出研究假设,利用2014—2018年的编码数据,使用离散时间事件史分析和Heckman两阶段模型等方法进行了实证分析。结果表明,电视问政中政府的长期回应质量明显低于短期回应质量;短期回应质量较低的议题和上级领导重视程度更高的议题更容易在电视问政中被长期关注,而被问责过的议题则更不容易被长期关注;上级领导重视程度越高和媒体关注度越高的议题,政府的长期回应质量越好,短期内公众舆论的负面程度和问责压力则对政府的长期回应质量没有显著影响;同时,政府内部的改革可以促进长期回应质量的提升,议题解决所需的单位时间协调成本则会随着时间的增加而降低。异质性分析的结果表明,与短期回应更注重问责官员、推动议题解决不同,电视问政的长期回应更倾向于避免对政府或官员不利的议题,更注重宣传政绩。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电视问政;政府回应;长期回应性;注意力分配;离散时间事件史分析;Heckman两阶段模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“电子政务回应性测度及回应性的影响因素实证研究”(项目批准号:71573204)资助

作者(Author): 鞠逸飞,董新宇

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