李会平,杨一飞

• 1:上海财经大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

政策注意力是政府决策的前提，其稳定性对政策目标落地和行为预期引导具有关键作用。间断—均衡理论认为，决策权力配置是影响制度摩擦的重要制度因素，进而作用于政策注意力稳定性。本文利用“撤县设区”考察地方政府决策权力集中对制度摩擦与政策注意力稳定性的影响。基于2003—2019年地级市政府工作报告的词频变化率分布图，本文采用双重差分、堆叠DID和因果森林模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明，“撤县设区”显著提高地级市经济、民生和环境政策注意力稳定性。机制分析显示，“撤县设区”通过减少市县行政层级间的博弈并增加地级市财政资源，降低政策制定过程中各利益相关者达成共识的制度摩擦，从而提升政策注意力稳定性。本文将间断—均衡理论关于决策权力分配的讨论拓展至地方政府治理层面，丰富了行政区划调整在政策过程研究中的理论解释。

关键词(KeyWords)： 政策注意力稳定性;“撤县设区”;制度摩擦;间断—均衡理论

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李会平,杨一飞

参考文献(References)：

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