范世炜,杨文辉

• 1:中央财经大学政府管理学院
• 2:美国得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政治学系

摘要(Abstract)：

本文通过政策偏好的视角解读了美国民意长达40年的转变过程。通过分析1973年至2014年美国的微观和宏观数据,本文发现贸易影响着美国公众的政策偏好。具体来说,低技能蓝领工人和高技能劳工阶层相比,前者面临着更激烈的进口竞争,后者则更容易在贸易中受益,因此后者相比前者对政府福利支出的要求更少。另外,在对外政策上,高技能劳工阶层作为全球化的受益者更支持对外援助的政策,而低技能蓝领工人则更倾向于要求扩大国防开支以更多地维护本国利益。本文提供了经济全球化和美国民意之间的耦合证据,为理解美国国内政治带来一定的启示。

关键词(KeyWords)： 政策偏好;政策氛围;国际贸易;全球化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“中国公共政策议程的动力学研究——基于‘信息—注意力’动态系统模型的理论与实证”(项目批准号:71603301)资助

作者(Author): 范世炜,杨文辉

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• (1)美国综合社会调查问卷中有关于受访者收入及其所从事行业的问题。本文以2007年北美行业分类系统(North American Industry Classification System,NAICS)的分类标准进行归类。限于样本信息，本文使用NAICS的3位行业代码识别和分类受访者所在行业。
• (1)数据详见斯科特(Scott)国际经济资源主页，网页链接为:http://faculty.som.yale.edu/peterschott/sub_international.htm。
• (2)美国政府预算管理办公室分别提供政府拨款和实际支出数据，本文使用的是实际支出的数据，和索罗卡和威尔詹对于具体政府支出的界定一致。
• (1)数据库网址:https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/index.html#armedconflict。