胡鞍钢,沈若萌,郎晓娟

• 1:清华大学公共管理学院
• 2:清华大学国情研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

作为生态文明建设的重要部分,森林建设日益成为公共管理事务中关注的焦点。本文利用我国第二至第七次森林清查省际面板数据,建立动态面板模型,使用系统广义矩估计方法,对改革开放以来我国森林资源变动与经济发展关系进行检验。此外还使用1978—2008年的全国森林资源数据对面板分析所得趋势进行了验证。实证结果显示:①基于改革开放以来的森林清查省际面板数据,中国的森林资源变化与经济发展水平间的关系保持共同增长的趋势,全国森林变动与人均GDP的数据也进一步验证了面板计量结果所反映的趋势;②基于目前结果无法判断近30多年来中国森林资源变动与经济发展间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线所描述的U形关系。

关键词(KeyWords)： 森林资源;环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC);动态面板;系统广义矩估计(system GMM)

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 胡鞍钢,沈若萌,郎晓娟

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