危机动员方式何以影响政治信任?——一项基于列举实验的研究How Does Crisis Mobilization Affect Political Trust?A Study Based on a List Experiment
雷叙川,饶万婷
摘要(Abstract):
政治信任是政治合法性与稳定性的来源,是国家长治久安的基础,受到公共危机应对方式的影响。本研究的关键问题是:在公共危机事件中,政府采取的危机动员方式是否影响以及如何影响民众的政治信任?为此,本研究设计了一个启动效应调查实验与列举实验的组合实验,以此来测量新冠疫情中不同危机动员方式对民众政治信任的影响。研究发现,危机动员方式对民众的政治信任具有显著影响,其中,强制型危机动员方式能提高民众的体制信任,但会降低机构信任与官员信任,诱致型危机动员方式则恰好相反,而宣传型危机动员方式仅能降低机构信任与官员信任。在公共危机情境下,可用文化主义路径解释民众体制信任的变化,制度主义路径也可在一定程度上解释危机动员方式对机构信任与官员信任的影响。
关键词(KeyWords): 政治信任;危机动员方式;启动效应调查实验;列举实验
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目“民众获得感视域下的地方治理能力测量与提升策略研究”(项目批准号:19XZZ008);; 四川省社会治理创新研究中心重点研究项目“四川地方治理能力与民众获得感实证研究”(项目批准号:SHZLZD19004)资助
作者(Author): 雷叙川,饶万婷
参考文献(References):
- 陈朋.2014.政治信任的理论建构:从内涵到功能[J].贵州社会科学,(10):17-20.Chen P.2014.Theoretical construction of political trust:From connotation to function[J].Guizhou Social Sciences,(10):17-20.(in Chinese)
- 陈云松,边燕杰.2015.饮食社交对政治信任的侵蚀及差异分析:关系资本的“副作用”[J].社会,35(1):92-120.Chen Y S,Bian Y J.2015.Analyzing the corrosive and differential roles of social eating in political trust:The side effects of Guanxi capital[J].Society,35(1):92-120.(in Chinese)
- 董明.2019.新时代我国非公有制经济人士的政治参与和政治引导---基于新制度主义的视角[J].治理研究,35(1):71-81.Dong M.2019.Political participation and political guidance of non-public economic persons in China in the new era[J].Governance Studies,35(1):71-81.(in Chinese)
- 季程远,孟天广.2020.反腐败与政治信任:结构偏好与规模偏好的影响差异[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版),28(2):99-112.Ji C Y,Meng T G.2020.Anti-corruption and political trust:Difference between effect of structural preference and scale preference[J].Journal of SJTU(Philosophy and Social Sciences),28(2):99-112.(in Chinese)
- 科恩.1988.论民主[M].聂崇信,朱秀贤,译.北京:商务出版社,179.
- 李辉,孟天广.2017.腐败经历与腐败感知:基于调查实验与直接提问的双重检验[J].社会,37(6):194-215.Li H,Meng T G.2017.Corruption experience and corruption perceptions:Comparing evidence from list experiment and direct questioning[J].Chinese Journal of Sociology,37(6):194-215.(in Chinese)
- 李艳霞.2014.何种信任与为何信任?---当代中国公众政治信任现状与来源的实证分析[J].公共管理学报,11(2):16-26.Li Y X.2014.What kind of trust and why do we trust?-An empirical analysis on the status and origin of Chinese political trust[J].Journal of Public Management,11(2):16-26.(in Chinese)
- 李艳霞.2020.福利制度模式与公众政府信任的跨国比较[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),73(2):134-144.Li Y X.2020.A comparative analysis of the welfare system and public trust in governments[J].Wuhan University Journal(Philosophy&Social Sciences),73(2):134-144.(in Chinese)
- 李勇军.2011.政策动员及其在中国的转向[J].云南行政学院学报,13(3):40-42.Li Y J.2011.Policy mobilization and its shift in China[J].Journal of Yunnan Institute of Administration,13(3):40-42.(in Chinese)
- 刘建平,杨铖.2018.政治信任:心理学视角下的前因后果[J].心理学探新,38(2):171-177.Liu J P,Yang C.2018.The determinants and consequences of political trust under the perspective of psychology[J].Psychological Exploration,38(2):171-177.(in Chinese)
- 刘伟,翁俊芳.2021.作为政治学方法论的理性选择制度主义:内在张力与发展限度[J].学习与实践,(2):40-49.Liu W,Weng J F.2021.Rational choice institutionalism as a methodology of political science:Internal tension and limits of development[J].Study and Practice,(2):40-49.(in Chinese)
- 刘文健,刘景岚.2020.北满根据地建设初期中国共产党获取农民政治信任研究[J].史学集刊,(6):73-80.Liu W J,Liu J L.2020.A research on the CPC's strategy for gaining farmers'political trust in the early period of the construction of the Northern Manchuria base area[J].Collected Papers of History Studies,(6):73-80.(in Chinese)
- 吕书鹏.2017.差序政府信任与政治体制支持[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),37(6):113-120.LüS P.2017.Hierarchical trust and regime support in China[J].Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences),37(6):113-120.(in Chinese)
- 马得勇.2007.政治信任及其起源---对亚洲8个国家和地区的比较研究[J].经济社会体制比较,(5):79-86.Ma D Y.2007.Institutional and cultural factors of political trust in eight Asian societies[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,(5):79-86.(in Chinese)
- 马得勇.2018.“匹配效应”:政治谣言的心理及意识形态根源[J].政治学研究,(5):54-66.Ma D Y.2018.Matching effects:The psychological and ideological origins of political rumors[J].CASS Journal of Political Science,(5):54-66.(in Chinese)
- 孟天广.2014.转型期的中国政治信任:实证测量与全貌概览[J].华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),53(2):1-10.Meng T G.2014.Political trust in transitional China:Measurement approaches and overall perspectives[J].Journal of Huazhong Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences),53(2):1-10.(in Chinese)
- 孟天广,季程远.2016.重访数字民主:互联网介入与网络政治参与---基于列举实验的发现[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),31(4):43-54.Meng T G,Ji C Y.2016.The era of digital democracy?Internet involvement and online political participation:Evidence from a list experiment[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),31(4):43-54.(in Chinese)
- 孟天广.2022.福利改革的政治分析:制度设计、制度绩效与政治信任[J].华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),61(3):66-79.Meng T G.2022.Politics of welfare reform:Institutional design,policy performance and political trust[J].Journal of Central China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences),61(3):66-79.(in Chinese)
- 任丙强,刘小青.2014.政治信任研究中的社会愿望偏差的影响及其校正[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,(3):139-144.Ren B Q,Liu X Q.2014.The effect of social desirability bias and its correction in the study of political trust[J].Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,(3):139-144.(in Chinese)
- 任莉颖.2018.用问卷做实验:调查-实验法的概论与操作[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,73,118.Ren L Y.2018.Experimenting with questionnaires:Introduction and operation of surveyexperimental methods[M].Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,73,118.(in Chinese)
- 上官酒瑞.2014.论变动社会中政治信任的结构特质[J].中共天津市委党校学报,(6):29-36.Shangguan J R.2014.On the structural characteristics of political trust in a changing cociety[J].Journal of the Party School of the Tianjin Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China,(6):29-36.(in Chinese)
- 谭翀,严强.2014.从“强制灌输”到“政策营销”---转型期中国政策动员模式变迁的趋势与逻辑[J].南京社会科学,(5):62-69.Tan C,Yan Q.2014.From“Compulsory Mobilization”to“Policy Marketing”:The trend and logic of policy mobilization mode transition in Chinese transformation period[J].Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences,(5):62-69.(in Chinese)
- 田改伟.2020.在危机应对中加强干部队伍能力建设研究[J].中国特色社会主义研究,(Z1):142-149.Tian G W.2020.Research on strengthening the capacity building of cadres in crisis response[J].Studies on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,(Z1):142-149.(in Chinese)
- 田先红.2020.从结果管理到过程管理:县域治理体系演变及其效应[J].探索,(4):26-36.Tian X H.2020.From result management to process management:Evolution of county governance system and its effects[J].Probe,(4):26-36.(in Chinese)
- 王浦劬,季程远.2016.论列举实验在敏感问题调查中的应用---以非制度化政治参与为验证[J].中国软科学,(9):135-143.Wang P Q,Ji C Y.2016.List experiment in measuring sensitive issue-Example from non-institutionalized political participation[J].China Soft Science,(9):135-143.(in Chinese)
- 王正绪.2022.政治信任研究:民本主义的理论框架[J].开放时代,(2):179-193.Wang Z X.2022.A Minben theory of political trust[J].Open Times,(2):179-193.(in Chinese)
- 沃伦.2004.民主与信任[M].吴辉,译.北京:华夏出版社:85.
- 乌尔里希·贝克.2004.风险社会:新的现代性之路[M].何博闻,译.北京:译林出版社.
- 熊美娟.2010.政治信任研究的理论综述[J].公共行政评论,(6):153-180.Xiong M J.2010.Review on political trust study[J].Journal of Public Administration,(6):153-180.(in Chinese)
- 徐彬.2005.论政治动员[J].中共福建省委党校学报,(1):20-24.Xu B.2005.On political mobilization[J].Journal of Fujian Party School,(1):20-24.(in Chinese)
- 姚靖,唐皇凤.2021.新冠肺炎疫情防控中的政治动员:实践策略与成功经验[J].湖北社会科学,(3):38-48.Yao J,Tang H F.2021.Political mobilization in epidemic prevention and control of COVID-19:Practical strategies and successful experiences[J].Hubei Social Sciences,(3):38-48.(in Chinese)
- 游宇,王正绪.2014.互动与修正的政治信任---关于当代中国政治信任来源的中观理论[J].经济社会体制比较,(2):178-193.You Y,Wang Z X.2014.Interactive and revisionist political trust:A meso-Theory on the sources of political trust in contemporary China[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,(2):178-193.(in Chinese)
- 翟学伟.2020.儒家的社会理论建构---对偶生成理论及其命题[J].社会学研究,35(1):56-79.Zhai X W.2020.On the construction of Confucian social theory-Dual generation and its propositions[J].Sociological Studies,35(1):56-79.(in Chinese)
- 詹姆斯·G.马奇,约翰·P.奥尔森.2011.重新发现制度:政治的组织基础[M].张伟,译.上海:三联书店.
- 张宇.2022.社会动员、政府公信力与政策遵从:风险社会韧性治理的合作逻辑[J].温州大学学报(社会科学版),35(1):72-80.Zhang Y.2022.Social mobilization,government credibility and policy compliance:The cooperative logic of resilient governance in risk society[J].Journal of Wenzhou University(Social Science Edition),35(1):72-80.(in Chinese)
- Blair G,Imai K.2012.Statistical analysis of list experiments[J].Political Analysis,20(1):47-77.
- Ceron A.2015.Internet,news,and political trust:The difference between social media and online media outlets[J].Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication,20(5):487-503.
- Chen J,Zhong Y,Hillard J W.1997.The level and sources of popular support for China's current political regime[J].Communist and Post-Communist Studies,30(1):45-64.
- Easton D.1975.A re-assessment of the concept of political support[J].British Journal of Political Science,5(4):435-457.
- Fennema M,Tillie J.1999.Political participation and political trust in Amsterdam:Civic communities and ethnic networks[J].Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies,25(4):703-726.
- Frewer L J,Howard C,Shepherd R.1998.The influence of initial attitudes on responses to communication about genetic engineering in food production[J].Agriculture and Human Values,15(1):15-30.
- Fried A.2006.Why trust matters:Declining political trust and the demise of American liberalism[J].Perspectives on Politics,4(1):186-187.
- Giddens A.1985.The nation-state and violence[M].Cambridge:Polity Press,218.
- Kim J Y.2005.“Bowling Together”isn't a cure-all:The relationship between social capital and political trust in South Korea[J].International Political Science Review,26(2):193-213.
- Lax J R,Phillips J H,Stollwerk A F.2016.Are survey respondents lying about their support for same-sex marriage?Lessons from a list experiment[J].Public Opinion Quarterly,80(2):510-533.
- Luhmann N.1979.Trust and power[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons.
- Marien S,Hooghe M.2011.Does political trust matter?An empirical investigation into the relation between political trust and support for law compliance[J].European Journal of Political Research,50(2):267-291.
- Meng T G,Pan J,Yang P.2017.Conditional receptivity to citizen participation:Evidence from a survey experiment in China[J].Comparative Political Studies,50(4):399-433.
- Munro N.2018.Does refusal bias influence the measurement of Chinese political trust?[J].Journal of Contemporary China,27(111):457-471.
- Newton K.2007.Social and political trust[M]//Dalton R J,Klingemann H D.The Oxford Handbook of Political Behaviour.Oxford:Oxford University Press,342-361.
- Ojeda C.2016.The effect of 9/11 on the heritability of political trust[J].Political Psychology,37(1):73-88.
- Ratigan K,Rabin L.2020.Re-evaluating political trust:The impact of survey nonresponse in rural China[J].The China Quarterly,243:823-838.
- Shangguan Z H,Wang M Y,Sun W.2020.What caused the outbreak of COVID-19 in China:From the perspective of crisis management[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,17(9):3279.
- Shi T J.2001.Cultural values and political trust:A comparison of the mainland and Taiwan[J].Comparative Politics,33(4):401-419.
- Tan A S.1981.Political participation,diffuse support and perceptions of political efficacy as predictors of mass media use[J].Communication Monographs,48(2):133-145.
- Yang Q,Tang W F.2010.Exploring the sources of institutional trust in China:Culture,mobilization,or performance?[J].Asian Politics&Policy,2(3):415-436.