王凡凡

• 1:海南大学国际旅游与公共管理学院
• 2:海南大学海南省公共治理研究中心(海南省哲学社会科学重点研究基地)

摘要(Abstract)：

中国式现代化要求完善国家应急管理体系，提高公共安全治理水平。目标考核在安全生产转型中具有重要地位，但其实施所引发的地区之间的空间互动模式亟待深入分析和检验。基于2001—2014年中国大陆31个省份的平衡面板数据，本文将安全生产“一票否决”视为一项准实验，结合双重差分模型和空间杜宾模型，检验安全生产目标考核的空间溢出效应。研究发现，目标考核的实施促使空间关联地区围绕着安全生产展开竞争，对空间关联地区整体产生正向溢出效应。进一步分析发现，安全生产目标考核对同样实施该制度的地区产生正向溢出效应，但对未实施该制度的地区产生负向溢出效应。异质性分析表明，目标考核对煤矿事故和工矿商贸事故的空间溢出效应更多受到地理因素的影响，而受到经济因素的影响非常有限。目标考核对安全生产治理效果的溢出效应未体现在东中部地区，在中西部地区和东西部地区主要表现为正向溢出效应。上述结论不仅为安全生产目标考核制度的未来实践提供了有益启发，也有效拓展了关于地方政府间策略互动模式的解释。

关键词(KeyWords)： 目标考核;安全生产治理效果;竞争;空间溢出效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“新时代城乡社区治理体系建设研究”(项目批准号:20JZD029);; 海南大学科研启动基金项目“安全生产目标考核的运行逻辑、制度效果与优化路径研究”(项目批准号:KYQD(SK2418)资助

作者(Author): 王凡凡

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• (1)国务院.(2004-01-09 )[2023-05-20].国务院关于进一步加强安全生产工作的决定.[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2004/content_63137.htm.
• (2)数据来源:《中华人民共和国2023年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
• (3)本文正文未报告局部莫兰图。如有需要,可联系作者获取。
• (4)本文正文未报告平行趋势检验结果。如有需要,可联系作者获取。
• (5)关于政策的空间溢出的模型推导,感兴趣的读者可以具体参考Chagas et al.(2016)。
• (6)东部组包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南(11个);中部组包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、河南、湖北、湖南、安徽、江西(8个);西部组包括内蒙古、重庆、四川、广西、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、西藏(12个)。