政治商业周期中的制度激励、外部冲击与官员晋升逻辑:基于1978—2012年中国分省面板数据的经验分析The Institution Incentive,External Impacts and Political Promotion of China's Political Business Cycles:An Empirical Analysis Based on China Provincial Panel Data From 1978 To 2012
姚金伟,孟庆国,黄天航
摘要(Abstract)：
中国经济奇迹令全世界着迷,政治商业周期理论对于理解"中国模式"大有裨益。鉴于政府主导性投资对于经济增长的根本性影响,本文从中国式分权的制度激励和外部政治经济冲击双重视角考察了1978—2012年中国的全社会固定资产投资情况。实证分析结果显示,中国的政治商业周期呈现显著的"三上二下式倒U形分布"特征,而这则同中国官员晋升逻辑密不可分,特别是同官员的政治流动密切关联。此外,研究也证实,对外部政治经济冲击而言,政治冲击的扭曲作用弱于经济冲击,而面对经济冲击时的政策差异则会对政治商业周期结构产生差异性影响。本文有助于更好地理解"中国模式"以及改进干部考核评价机制,后续的研究将讨论中国政治商业周期中官员晋升逻辑的新特点。
关键词(KeyWords)： 中国式分权;外部冲击;“三上二下式倒U形分布”;政治晋升;官员流动
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金项目“基于城市管理视角的社会管理创新研究”(编号:13CGL103);; 清华大学自主科研计划“中国重大社会经济问题研究专项”(编号:2010THZ04-1)
作者(Author): 姚金伟,孟庆国,黄天航
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