吴中盛,朱飞宇

• 1:浙江大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

政府的支持性政策对我国社会组织的发展有着重要影响。国内外研究者就政府资助对社会组织金钱捐赠的影响提出了挤出效应、挤入效应和非线性效应等多种理论模型，但尚未形成定论；而有关政府资助对时间捐赠影响的研究则相当缺乏。基于2015年度2997家中国基金会的数据，本研究通过多元回归和边际效应预估，探究了政府资助对社会组织捐赠收入和志愿者数量的影响，并通过拓展回归模型对结果进行了稳健性检验。实证分析显示，政府资助与捐赠收入之间呈现“U形”关系，政府资助水平较低时会挤出捐赠收入，在政府资助超过一定水平后即会挤入捐赠收入。与之相反，政府资助与志愿者数量之间则呈现“倒U形”关系，政府资助水平较低时会挤入志愿者数量，而政府资助水平较高时则会挤出志愿者数量。本文的结论不仅能在理论上拓展既有的挤入/挤出效应模型，且能为中国情境下政府制定对社会组织的支持性政策提供证据支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 政府资助;金钱捐赠;时间捐赠;挤入效应;挤出效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年项目“政府资助对慈善捐赠的影响及作用机制研究：理论框架、实证检验与政策优化”(项目批准号:72404243);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“浙大文科‘青峰计划’”的资助

作者(Author): 吴中盛,朱飞宇

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• (1)鉴于政府补助收入占比(Govperi)在已有文献中也可能对捐赠收入产生非线性的倒U形影响,本研究在实证分析中也尝试在模型中加入了政府补助收入占比的平方项,但由于其平方项不显著而一次项显著,因而没有在最终模型中加入该变量的平方项,而只保留了该变量的一次项。去掉平方项并不影响模型的最终结果。