张强,贾璇,马梓洲,刘雅迪

• 1:华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院
• 2:中新广州知识城合作项目服务管理中心
• 3:中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

预算绩效管理改革从2018年开始在我国全面实施，但预算绩效管理改革能否有效减缓财政压力、提高预算执行质量的研究尚未引起广泛关注。本文采用多期DID模型对2000—2021年30个省级面板数据进行实证研究，结果显示：预算绩效管理改革显著提升了省级预算执行质量，且财政压力在其中发挥了中介效应。异质性分析显示：这种影响存在区域异质性和官员特质异质性，在中部地区最为显著，西部地区次之，而在东部地区影响最小；此外，党政一把手有财经相关背景的地区影响效应更加显著。缘此，持续深化预算绩效管理改革，加强对中西部地区预算绩效管理改革的指导，注重干部培养过程中财经方面的专业进修或补充履职经历，对推进国家治理能力现代化具有重要支撑意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 预算绩效管理改革;预算执行质量;财政压力;官员特质

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目“预算绩效目标管理何以影响预算分配?面向我国财政支出项目的实证研究”(项目批准号:71974058);; 华南师范大学哲学社会科学重大培育项目“我国乡村产业振兴财政扶持政策绩效产出、共同富裕效应及优化路径研究”(项目批准号:ZDPY2406);; 广东省自然科学基金面上项目“数字财政对广东省公共支出效率的影响机制研究”(项目批准号:2023A1515011898)的资助

作者(Author): 张强,贾璇,马梓洲,刘雅迪

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• (1)受限于篇幅,倾向得分匹配的检验结果和剔除湖北省样本数据的稳健性检验结果详见附录。 (2)东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11个省(直辖市);中部地区包括黑龙江、吉林、山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南8个省,西部地区包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆11个省(直辖市、自治区)。