蒙克,华冉

• 1:清华大学公共管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

社保收入负担与经济发展的关系一直缺乏理论关照,传统的社会保障-经济发展、税收-经济发展理论很少将社保收入作为核心自变量。但税收与政府支出影响经济发展的路径不同,并且各国的社保收支事实上又存在缺口,因此面对这一理论与现实的断层,笔者在总供给-总需求(AS-AD)宏观理论框架下,结合社保缴费和企业成本转嫁的微观理论,提出社保负担影响经济发展的方向以及两种中介机制,并通过定量分析1966-2014年全球60多个主要经济体的社保收入占总税收比重与人均GDP增长率的关系,论证社保负担会通过降低就业量和缩减出口两条机制对经济发展产生抑制作用。本文在社保负担对经济发展的影响上做出启发式贡献,在概念化与测量方面采用更加契合概念内容的"社保税收占总税收比重"作为衡量指标,并通过中介效应的分析和检验为这一问题提供实证支持。

关键词(KeyWords)： 社保负担;总供给-总需求模型;就业率;净出口;中介效应

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 蒙克,华冉

参考文献(References)：

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• (4)目前主流的制度质量测量方式有:世界银行的世界治理指数Worldwide Governance Indicators,包括腐败控制、政府效能、政治稳定、管制质量、法治、话语权与问责制共6个大方面;世界各国风险指南数据集International Country Risk Guide的政治风险指数,包括政府稳定、社会经济状况、投资情况、内部冲突、外部冲突、腐败、军人干政、宗教张力、法律秩序、种族张力、民主问责、官僚质量共12个指标;墨菲和劳森等人的世界经济自由度数据集Economic Freedom of the World,包括政府规模、法律和产权制度、健全货币、国际贸易自由、管制共5个大方面;阿西莫格鲁等学者坚持的产权保护制度;等等。
• (5)Kloosterman,R.,Beerepoot,N.,Lambregts,B.,“Service-Sector Driven Economic Development from a Historical Perspective,"in The Local Impact of Globalization in South and Southeast Asia Offshore Business Processes in Services Industries, edited by Bart Lambregts,Niels Beerepoot, and Robert C.Kloosterman,London and New York:Routledge,2016,p.219.
• (6)Benos,N.,Zotou,S.,"Education and Economic Growth:A Meta-Regression Analysis,"World Development,2014(64),pp.669-689; Siddiqui,A.,Rehman, A.U.,"The Human Capital and Economic Growth Nexus:in East and South Asia,"Applied Economics, 2017(49),pp.2697-2710; Teixeira,A.A.C.,Queir6s,A.S.S.,"Economic Growth,Human Capital and Structural Change:A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis,"Research Policy, 2016(45),pp.1636-1648.
• (7)Barro,R.J.,"Inflation and Economic Growth,”Annals of Economics and Finance,2013(14),pp.85-109; Bick,A.,"Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Developing Countries,"Economics Letters,2010(108),pp.126-129; Hussain,S.,Malik,S.,“Inflation and Economic Growth:Evidence from Pakistan,International Journal of Economics and Finance,2011(3),pp.262-276.
• (8)Mian,A.,Sufi,A.,“What Explains the 2007-2009 Drop in Employment?"Econometrica,2014(82),pp.2197-2223.
• (1)Dustmann,C.,Sch(o|¨)nberg,U.,Stuhler,J.,“Labor Supply Shocks,Native Wages,and The Adjustment of Local Employment,"The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016(132),pp.435-483; Keane,M.,Rogerson,R.,"Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities:A Structural Perspective,"Annual Review of Economics, 2015(7),pp.89-117.
• (2)Cair6,I.,Cajner,T.,"Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics:Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability,"The Economic Journal, 2017(128),pp.652-682; Harrison,R., JaumandreuBalanzo,J.,Mairesse,J.,Peters,B.,"Does Innovation Stimulate Employment? A Firm-Level Analysis Using Comparable Micro-Data from Four European Countries,"paper discussed at the Zentrumf(u|¨)r Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung,2008,pp.1-54.
• (3)Balassa,B.,"Exports and Economic Growth:Further Evidence,”Journal of Development Economics,1978(5), pp.181-189; Coughlin,C.C.,Cartwright,P.A.,"An Examination of State Foreign Export Promotion and Manufacturing Exports,"Journal of Regional Science, 1987(27), pp.439-449; NauDe,W.,"The Determinants of South African Exports:An Econometric Analysis,"South African Journal of Economics,2000(68),pp.103-113.
• (4)尽管世界经济自由度Economic Freedom of the World的“国际贸易自由度”指标数据从1970年开始,但1970~2000年的数据为每5年统计一次,缺失值太多会导致严重的测量误差,因此不予采纳。
• (5)World Development Indicators,https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators,accessed October 1,2018.
• (1)Variaties of Democracy(V-Dem),参见Pemstein,Daniel,Kyle L Marquardt,Eitan Tzelgov,Yi-ting Wang,Joshua Krusell and Farhad Miri,“The V-Dem Measurement Model:Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data,"University of Gothenburg, Varieties of Democracy Institute:Working Paper 211 2018。
• (2)Penn World Table,参见Feenstra,Robert C.,Robert Inklaar and Marcel P.Timmer,“The Next Generation of the Penn World Table,"American Economic Review, 2015(105),pp.3150-3182。
• (1)Baron,R.M.,Kenny,D.A.,“The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research:Conceptual,Strategic, and Statistical Considerations,"Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986(51),pp.1173-1182;温忠麟、叶宝娟:《中介效应分析:方法和模型发展》,《心理科学进展》2014年第22期;温忠麟、张雷、侯杰泰、刘红云:《中介效应检验程序及其应用》,《心理学报》2004年第36期。
• (2)Fritz,M.S.,MacKinnon,D.P.,“Required Sample Size to Detect the Mediated Effect,”Psychological Science, 2007(18),pp.233-239; MacKinnon,D.P.,Lockwood,C.M.,Hoffman,J.M., West,S.G., Sheets,V.,"A Comparison of Methods to Test Mediation and Other Intervening Variable Effects,"Psychological Methods,2002(7),pp.83-104.
• (3)Hayes,A.F.,"Beyond Baron and Kenny:Statisticalmediation Analysis in the Bew Millennium,"Communication Monographs, 2009(76),pp.408-420; MacKinnon,D.P., Introduction to Statistical Mediation Analysis,Mahwah,NJ:Erlbaum,2008;方杰、张敏强:《中介效应的点估计和区间估计:乘积分布法、非参数Bootstrap和MCMC法》,《心理学报》2012年第44期。
• (4)Efron,B.,"Bootstrap Methods:Another Look at the Jackknife,"Annals of Statistics, 1979(7),pp.1-26.
• (5)Wen,Z.,Marsh,H.W., Hau,K.T.,"Structural Equation Models of Latent Interactions:An Appropriate Standardized Solution and Its Scale-Free Properties,"Structural Equation Modeling, 2010(17),pp.1-22.
• (6)Hayes,A.F.,&Scharkow,M.,“The Relative Trustworthiness of Inferential Tests of the Indirect Effect in Statistical Mediation Analysis:Does Method Really Matter?"Psychological Science, 2013(24),pp.1918-1927;方杰、张敏强:《中介效应的点估计和区间估计:乘积分布法、非参数Bootstrap和MCMC法》,《心理学报》2012年第44期。
• (1)Beck,N.,Katz,J.N.,"What to Do(and Not to Do)with Time-Series Cross-Section Data,"American Political Science Review,1995(89),pp.634-647.
• (2)在融合了截面和时间序列数据的面板分析中,由于遗漏变量、样本数据的测量误差、异常值等因素,会产生复杂的异方差问题。可行的广义最小二乘法(Feasible Generalized Least Squares,简称FGLS)能够有效地处理大样本数据中的异方差问题,但是FGLS估计产生的标准误过小,贝克和卡茨提出可以由PCSE来估计普通最小二乘(Ordinary Least Square,简称OLS)的系数,由此渐进有效地处理异方差。同时Prais-Winaten变换在广义差分过程中变换而非直接损失一个观测值,从而在不影响估计精度的前提下消除扰动项的自相关性。因此,经过Prais-Winsten变换的P