倪星,赵潞烨

• 1:中国人民大学公共管理学院
• 2:中国人民大学纪检监察学院

摘要(Abstract)：

惩罚是维持政治权力和统治有效性的重要力量。本文基于行人闯红灯的联合实验设计，探讨了不同惩罚方式对公民遵从的具体影响及其作用机制。研究发现，惩罚概率的提升、物质性惩罚及部分精神性惩罚能够促进公民遵从，罚款严厉性的提高可以增强公民遵从倾向；感知合法性发挥着中介作用——当惩罚被认为是有用的、符合道德规范且具公平性时，公民遵从度会得到提升，而过于严厉的惩罚反而会削弱惩罚的效果；他人闯红灯概率的提升会负向调节低额罚款的作用效果；惩罚效果具有个体异质性。这表明，在现代国家和社会治理中需平衡惩罚的有效性与合法性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 惩罚;遵从;感知合法性;联合实验

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“新型腐败和隐性腐败的特点、规律及防治策略研究”(项目批准号:24ZDA105);; 教育部哲学社会科学研究专项项目“廉洁教育的常态化长效化机制研究”(项目批准号:24JDJC10)的资助

作者(Author): 倪星,赵潞烨

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)a.对于罚款金额的取值和精神性惩罚方式的设定,主要依据是《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》及各地颁布的实施办法、各地关于惩罚行人闯红灯的新闻报道。b.研究参考了国外的相关惩罚规定,通过提高一定的罚款额度探索效果。c.实验未设置不同属性和水平之间的条件约束,而是让不同惩罚方式随机组合出现,目的是尝试探索自由裁量权的使用边界和限度,探讨惩罚的有效性和合法性问题。 (2)由于本研究的联合实验设计中包含了两个版本的问卷,传统的Scheaffer等抽样数量计算方法不再适用(Johnson et al.,2006),故采用N=500*L/(A*C)的抽样公式进行计算(Hensher et al.,2005)。其中,N为抽样样本数量,L为属性中的最大水平个数7,A为一个选择集中的选择方案数量2,C为每个被试面临的选择集个数3,得到最小样本数量为584份;纳入样本量流失20%的考量后(Hainmueller et al.,2014),预计最小样本数量为701份。 (3)本文对精神性惩罚严厉程度的设定结合了理论研究和实证数据:理论研究主要参考羞耻感的社会压力来源和公开化程度(Tangney,1995;Tangney et al.,2014),以及羞耻感产生和程度的群体依赖性(李赛琦和王柳生,2020),并结合中国社会关系中的差序性特点作出判断;实证方面,招募了70位被试,让他们对四种精神性惩罚方式造成的羞耻感进行排序,最终获得67份有效问卷,并计算不同惩罚方式的综合得分,得分越高表示该惩罚方式造成的羞耻感越强,得分结果从低到高依次为“马路边教育”“发微信朋友圈”“公布在曝光屏”“通报单位和社区”。 (4)由于本文的属性水平较多,将其他人闯红灯的概率这一属性的水平值分成较高(50%、75%、99%)和较低(1%、25%)两组,将罚款金额这一属性的水平值分为无、较低(10元、20元、50元)和较高(100元、200元、500元)三组,然后建立其他人闯红灯的概率与罚款金额、其他人闯红灯的概率与其他惩罚方式的交互项。 (5)出于样本量的考虑,被抓概率、事故发生概率、其他人闯红灯概率中的低估组为估计值小于实际值,高估组为估计值大于实际值;罚款金额中的低估组为估计值小于等于实际值。