逻辑因果与量化相关:少案例比较方法的两种路径Boolean Causality and Quantitative Association:Two Approaches to the Small-N Comparative Method
陈超,李响
摘要(Abstract)：
在研究方法日新月异的今天,少案例比较法依然被广泛使用。然而,在多数研究中,都存在一个本体论与方法论相互错位的现象:研究者明明提出的是一个有关充分/必要条件(或条件组合)的因果框架,却用统计的思维来指导案例的选择以及变量的控制。本文认为,充分/必要性与统计相关性在因果关系的本体问题上存在根本差异:前者视因果关系为"逻辑因果",遵循布尔代数法则,而后者视因果关系为"量化相关",遵循线性代数法则。这一本体上的不同带来了两个具体的差异:第一,在布尔代数中,只有不同类型的因果关系,而没有不同程度的因果效应,因此在不同算数法则之下,如何对案例进行分类也有着不同的逻辑;第二,在布尔代数中,不同类型的条件(或条件组合)对结果产生的是"完全影响",而在线性代数中,不同原因对结果产生的都是"部分效应",因此,本文提出,"逻辑可比"而非"量化可比"的策略更适用于检验有关充分/必要性的理论框架。
关键词(KeyWords)： 逻辑因果;量化相关;逻辑可比;量化可比;案例分类
基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助,项目号为20720151286
作者(Author): 陈超,李响
参考文献(References)：
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- (2)在国外,例如Seawright,Dunning,Brady and Collier,Lieberman等都是KKV的追随者。相关研究参见,Thad Dunning,Natural Experiment in the Social Sciences:A Design-Based Approach,NY:Cambridge University Press,2012; Henry E.Brady and David Collier,Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools,Shared Standards, Maryland:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,Inc.,2010; Evan S.Lieberman,“Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research,”American Political Science Review,2005(3),pp.412-436。在国内,例如王丽萍、臧雷振、陈鹏、耿曙、陈玮、钟灵娜等人的著作也追随KKV的方法思想。相关研究参见,王丽萍《比较政治研究中的案例、方法与策略》,《北京大学学报》(哲学社会科学版)2013年第6期;臧雷振、陈鹏《比较政治学研究选择性偏差及其规避探索》,《政治学研究》2016年第1期;耿曙、陈玮《社会科学的定性研究:反思几项方法论上的迷思》,《公共治理评论》2014年第1期;耿曙、陈玮、钟灵娜《白话<社会科学中的研究设计>:日常思考的语言与研究设计的逻辑》,《公共行政评论》2015年第4期。
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- (4)“案例导向的研究”与“变量导向的研究”是由查尔斯·拉金(Charles Ragin)首先提出。需要说明的是,这种区分与传统意义上“质性”与“量化”的区分不尽相同。一般来说,质性研究包括科学与人文两大传统。前者受实证主义的深刻影响,以“解释”(explanation)为目的,寻求具有一定普世性的“规律”;后者则受后现代主义的影响,以“阐释”(interpretation)为目的,寻求在一定背景中的“意义”。在拉金那里,“案例导向的研究”指的是科学传统下的案例研究,主要包括以建构理论为目的的个案研究、少案例比较研究(small-N comparative methods)与定性比较分析(QCA)。参见Charles C.Ragin,The Comparative Method:Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies,Berkeley and Los Angeles:University of California Press,1987;朱天飚《<社会科学中的研究设计>与定性研究》,《公共行政评论》2015年第4期。
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- (1)下文将通过比较两种不同路径,详细展示为什么从量化相关逻辑出发的方法,不能用于挖掘条件的充分性或必要性。
- (2)在学术界,目前对于“中等规模”并没有一个精确的规定,大概指的是多于10个而少于100个,即案例数量在数十个左右的案例规模。
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- (2)Gary Goertz and James Mahoney,A Tale of Two Cultures:Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences,Pinceton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2012,p.200.
- (1)Donald B.Rubin,"Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies,"Journal of Educational Psychology, 1974(5),pp.688-701.
- (2)这正是因果推断的根本难题(The fundamental problem of causal inference)。参见Paul W.Holland,“Statistics and Causal Inference,”Journal of the American Statistical Association,1986(396),pp.945-960。
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- (1)相关讨论参见大卫·休谟《人类理智研究》,吕大吉译,商务印书馆,1999; John S.Mill,A System of Logic.Londres:Parker,1843; Leslie John Mackie,The Cement of the Universe:A Study of Causation,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1980。
- (2)例如,斯考切波指出,国家崩溃与农民起义的组合共同导致了社会革命的爆发,那么国家崩溃与农民起义就是社会革命爆发的INUS条件。在2003年的伊拉克战争问题上,戈尔不当选总统被认为是战争爆发的一个必要条件,而布什当选总统是导致戈尔不当选的一个充分非必要条件,因此,“布什当选总统”,就是导致伊拉克战争爆发的SUNI条件(Mahoney&Barrenechea,2017)。参见西达·斯考切波《国家与社会革命——对法国、俄国和中国的比较分析》,何俊志、王学东译,上海人民出版社,2015; James Mahoney and Rodrigo Barrenechea,"The Logic of Counterfactual Analysis in Case-Study Explanation,"The British Journal of Sociology,2017,DOI:10.1111/1468-4446.12340.
- (1)James Mahoney and Gary Goertz,"The Possibility Principle:Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research,"American Political Science Review 2004(4),p.653.
- (2)James Mahoney and Gary Goertz,"The Possibility Principle:Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research,"American Political Science Review 2004(4),p.658.
- (1)在这一点上,Freedaman做了更为细致的解释。David A.Freedman,Statistical Models and Causal Inference:A Dialogue with the Social Sciences,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2010.
- (2)Bear F.Braumoeller and Gary Goertz,"The Methodology of Necessary Conditions,"American Journal of Political Science,2000(4),pp.844-858.
- (1)Gary Goertz and James Mahoney,A Tale of Two Cultures:Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences,Pinceton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2012,p.183.
- (1)Charles C.Ragin,Redesigning Social Inquiry:Fuzzy Sets and Beyond,Chicago,IL:University of Chicago Press,2008.
- (2)James Mahoney and Gary Goertz,"The Possibility Principle:Choosing Negative Cases in Comparative Research,"American Political Science Review,2004(4),pp.653-669.
- (1)从这个角度来说,密尔的求同法、求异法,事实上与QCA的思想是有本质区别的。关于二者的区别Alrik Thiem曾做了更为详细的解释,并且批评了马洪尼、格尔茨、里金等人认为QCA的思想与密尔相通的观点。Alrik Thiem,"Mill's Methods,Induction and Case Sensitivity in Qualitative Comparative Analysias A Comment on Hug(2013),"Qualitative&Multi-Method Research,2014(2),pp.19-24; Alrik Thiem,"Michael Baumgartner,and Damien Bol. Still Lost in Translation! A Correction of Three Misunderstandings between Configurational Comparativists and Regressional Analysts,"Comparative Political Studies,2016(6),pp.742-774.
- (2)Adam Przeworski and Henry Teune,The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry,New York:Wiley-Interscience,1970.
- (3)George Alexander and Andrew Bennett,Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences,Cambridge:MIT Press,2005.
- (4)Gary King,Robert O.Keohane,and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994,p.168.
- (1)这样的研究不胜枚举,斯考切波的名著《国家与社会革命》就是一个典型。参见西达·斯考切波《国家与社会革命——对法国、俄国和中国的比较分析》,何俊志、王学东译,上海人民出版社,2015。
- (1)Dan Slater and Daniel Ziblatt,"The Enduring Indispensability of the Controlled Comparison,"Comparative Political Studies,2013(10),pp.1301-1327.
- (1)典型的作者就是Lieberman,Seawright。参见Evan S.Lieberman,"Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research,"American Political Science Review,2005(3),pp.412-436; Jason Seawright,Multi-Method Social Science:Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Tools,NY:Cambridge University Press,2016。
- (2)例如,近年来一些学者尝试将QCA、模糊集的方法与反事实分析、过程追踪的方法相结合。参见Derek Beach and Ingo Rohlfing,"Integrating Cross-case Analyses and Process Tracing in Set-Theoretic Research:Strategies and Parameters of Debate,"Sociological Methods&Research,2015(1),pp.3-36; Derek Beach,"Achieving Methodological Alignment When Combining QCA and Process Tracing in Practice,"Sociological Methods&Research,2017(1),pp.64-99。