李强,叶昱利,文斌

• 1:广州大学公共管理学院
• 2:广州大学乡村振兴研究院、廉政研究中心、南方治理研究院
• 3:华南农业大学经济管理学院
• 4:西南民族大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

利用饥荒作为自然实验,本文探讨父母早年饥荒经历的累积风险对其子女身高代际影响的疤痕效应与选择效应。运用中国预防科学医学院和美国北卡罗来纳大学人口中心合作完成的中国健康与营养调查(China Health and Nutrition Survey,CHNS)数据,利用个体累积风险与出生队列的差异构建双重差分模型(DID),本文发现,母亲的累积饥荒风险对其子女身高既有疤痕效应,也有选择效应,但选择效应大于疤痕效应。该结果意味着,母亲饥荒经历的累积严重程度越高,子女的身高越高。在排除了男孩偏好、选型婚配(assortative mating)等作用渠道后,本文认为,累积饥荒风险通过影响父母的身高而部分作用于子女的身高。本文传递给发展中国家的信息是,发展中的挫折可能使得我们未来变得更加强大。

关键词(KeyWords)： 代际影响;农村儿童;累积风险;童年逆境

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 2021年青年骨干教师出国研修项目基金;; 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“乡村振兴背景下农户间风险分担网络的不平等效应及其治理研究”(项目批准号:22YJC790078)资助

作者(Author): 李强,叶昱利,文斌

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• (1)尽管Currie and Vogl(2013)对饥荒的研究表明胚胎期经历饥荒对成人慢性病的影响更大,但由于缺乏各地饥荒准确的开始和结束日期,因此很难准确地区分父母在胚胎期和婴儿期的饥荒暴露程度。所以,本文没有进一步区分父母在胚胎期和婴儿期饥荒经历的累积风险。
• (2)各省1956—1958年较为平稳的死亡率常被用来测度各省的正常死亡率。1959—1961年死亡率与正常死亡率的差异,即超额死亡率,常被用来衡量饥荒的严重程度。但是,超额死亡率并不是唯一的指标。例如,Meng and Qian(2009)使用出生儿存活数量、Song(2014)使用饥荒期间实际与预期出生规模之间的差异作为衡量指标。
• (1)胎龄一般从孕妇末次月经的第一天算起,至胎儿分娩约40周(9个月)。本文尝试过按9. 3个月、9. 5个月、10个月胎龄来计算饥荒经历的累积风险,回归结果与按9个月来计算没有显著差异。限于篇幅,结果未报告,感兴趣的读者可联系作者获取。
• (2)阳光照射可以促进维生素D的形成,满足儿童对钙质的大量需要,从而促进儿童的身高发育。日照时数是指太阳实际照射地面的时间。本文将省会城市日照时数作为全省日照时数的代理变量。日照时数来源于1990年、1992年、1994年、1998年和2001年的《中国统计年鉴》。
• (1)Lowess的思想是在一定比例的局部数据中拟合多项式回归线,以观察数据在局部呈现出的规律和趋势。
• (1)父亲平滑曲线的拐点是21. 05‰,母亲平滑曲线的拐点是21. 27‰,两者相差无几。为简化图形,我们仅画出当累积死亡率等于21. 05‰时的垂直参照线。当父亲经历累积死亡率等于0(没有经历饥荒)时,其子女的标准化身高均值是-0. 85,相对应地,母亲经历累积死亡率等于0时,其子女的标准化身高均值是-0. 92,两者也是相差无几。为简化图形,我们仅画出当标准化身高等于-0. 92时的水平参照线。
• (1)老饥荒队列子女的平均年龄是7. 570岁(91月龄),对应男孩的标准差是5. 497,女孩的标准差是5.662;年轻饥荒队列子女的平均年龄是6. 065岁(72月龄),对应男孩的标准差是4. 927,女孩的标准差是5. 120。标准差数据来源于WHO。详见https://www. who. int/tools/growth-reference-data-for-5to19-years/indicators/height-for-age。
• (1)本文也尝试过将饥荒发生的时间向前平移5年,结果基本一样,累积风险与父母饥荒队列的4个交互项的系数仍不显著。限于篇幅表6中未报告该结果,感兴趣的读者可联系作者获取。
• (1)Tan et al.(2015)还利用我国个别少数民族没有男孩偏好的事实,将这些样本删除后再回归来探究男孩偏好是否是饥荒代际传递的作用渠道。本文2207个样本中属于没有男孩偏好的少数民族样本(回族、蒙古族、维吾尔族、藏族、傣族、黎族)仅有19个(Mu and Zhang, 2011),占比非常低,故本文没有使用该方法。