刘生龙

• 1:清华大学公共管理学院
• 2:清华大学国情研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

本期的"当季英文佳作评介"选取4篇发表于经济学顶尖期刊上的采用断点回归设计方法的文章。这4篇文章分别采用人口数量作为驱动变量估计印度交通基础设施对地区经济发展的影响;利用入学分数作为驱动变量估计智利精英教育对个人社会阶层流动的影响;利用司法政策变动研究美国得克萨斯州司法转处的效应;利用地理断点估计中国家庭对清洁空气的支付意愿。本文分别从研究概述、研究背景、实证设计、实证结果这几个方面对所选论文进行总结和评述,以期助益中国社会科学,特别是公共管理学科利用断点回归设计方法展开相关研究。

关键词(KeyWords)： 社会科学;可信性革命;自然实验;因果识别;断点回归设计

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学面上基金项目“交通基础设施的外部性:来自机器学习因果识别的实证证据及其政策启示”(项目批准号:72073078);; 教育部人文社会科学基金项目“应对人口老龄化的女性劳动参与激励政策分析研究:理论、实证与模拟”(项目批准号:20YJA790047)资助

作者(Author): 刘生龙

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)比如在研究大学教育对个人前途的影响时，不可能随机抽取一部分人群让他们不得进行大学教育。
• (1)主要假设是如果没有相关的政策冲击，驱动变量在临界点处是连续的。这就要求一些基本条件应该得到满足:首先是驱动变量在临界点附近不能够被系统地进行操纵，其次是前定变量在临界点处满足连续性条件。
• (2)这里仅仅列出了经济学五大(Top 5)期刊上的RD设计发文量，这5本期刊代表近年来经济学研究的最高水平，感谢博士生张晓明的整理工作。
• (3)这里发文总量不包括短文及评述性论文。
• (1)公司领导层限定为获得上市公司高级行政管理职位或者董事会席位的人士。